Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland Legal) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| Kansas State O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| O/U 47.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Kansas State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| Arizona State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State | 52% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| O/U 53.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Kansas State O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Arizona State O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 57.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Kansas State O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| Kansas State O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Kansas State O/U 32.5 | 32% |
| Arizona State O/U 35.5 | 32% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 30% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 29% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Arizona State O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Arizona State O/U 32.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| O/U 73.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 75.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Kansas State vs. Arizona State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 52% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T19:45:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $192K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein Plattform-Status-Snapshot, nicht eine Trading-Empfehlung. Wir listen die regulatorischen Anforderungen jeder Plattform — Polymarket (CFTC-Konflikt seit 2022), Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert, US-only), Betfair (UK-lizensiert, geo-Block in DE), Manifold (Spielgeld, keine Regulierung) — und zeigen die Live-Quote nur dort, wo wir saubere Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung trennt sich nach regulatorischem Modell. Polymarkets on-chain Pfad ist KYC-frei für lebenslanges Volumen unter $1.500 (Polymarket Deutschland Legal-Schwelle); die Auszahlung erfolgt in USDC innerhalb Minuten. Kalshi und Betfair setzen volle KYC-Verifikation voraus — bei beiden Plattformen sind deutsche Nutzer in der Praxis durch Geo-Block ausgeschlossen.
Häufige Fragen
- Brauche ich KYC für Polymarket Deutschland Legal?
- Nicht für lebenslanges Trading-Volumen unter $1.500. Über dieser Schwelle wird ein schneller KYC-Prozess ausgelöst — Ausweis, Selfie, ungefähr 5-10 Minuten. Die Schwelle entspricht FATF-Reisestandards für nicht-regulierte Krypto-Plattformen.
- Kann ich anonym handeln?
- Pseudonym, ja — bis zur KYC-Schwelle. Polymarket Deutschland Legal speichert nicht Ihren Klarnamen, sondern eine Email-Adresse und Wallet-Adressen. Über $1.500 lebenslanges Volumen wird KYC verlangt, dann ist die Identität nicht mehr anonym.
- Was passiert bei einer Steuerprüfung?
- Sie sind selbst verantwortlich für die Dokumentation Ihrer Trades. Polymarket Deutschland Legal exportiert eine vollständige Transaktions-Historie (CSV/PDF) für Steuer-Berichte. Bei deutscher Steuerprüfung müssen Sie diese Dokumente vorlegen können.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte Glücksspiel?
- Rechtlich unklar in DE. Einige Auslegungen sehen sie als 'Wetten' (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag relevant), andere als 'Termingeschäft' (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). Bisher gibt es keine Präzedenz-Urteile spezifisch für on-chain Prediction-Markets.
- Gibt es eine Höchstgrenze für Auszahlungen?
- Keine plattform-seitige Höchstgrenze. Sie können beliebig große Beträge auszahlen, vorausgesetzt KYC ist abgeschlossen. SEPA-Bank-Auszahlungen über €15.000 werden zusätzlich für Anti-Money-Laundering geprüft (gesetzliche Pflicht für alle Plattformen).
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