Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland Legal) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 85% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 76% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 48% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Grizzlies vs. Warriors. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $508K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein Plattform-Status-Snapshot, nicht eine Trading-Empfehlung. Wir listen die regulatorischen Anforderungen jeder Plattform — Polymarket (CFTC-Konflikt seit 2022), Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert, US-only), Betfair (UK-lizensiert, geo-Block in DE), Manifold (Spielgeld, keine Regulierung) — und zeigen die Live-Quote nur dort, wo wir saubere Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung trennt sich nach regulatorischem Modell. Polymarkets on-chain Pfad ist KYC-frei für lebenslanges Volumen unter $1.500 (Polymarket Deutschland Legal-Schwelle); die Auszahlung erfolgt in USDC innerhalb Minuten. Kalshi und Betfair setzen volle KYC-Verifikation voraus — bei beiden Plattformen sind deutsche Nutzer in der Praxis durch Geo-Block ausgeschlossen.
Häufige Fragen
- Ist Polymarket in Deutschland legal?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert — eine eigentliche Nutzung über die Polymarket-Seite ist nicht möglich. Die rechtliche Lage in DE selbst ist Graubereich: keine explizite Erlaubnis, keine explizite Verbote für Prediction-Markets. Polymarket Deutschland Legal hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint.
- Was passiert bei einer Steuerprüfung?
- Sie sind selbst verantwortlich für die Dokumentation Ihrer Trades. Polymarket Deutschland Legal exportiert eine vollständige Transaktions-Historie (CSV/PDF) für Steuer-Berichte. Bei deutscher Steuerprüfung müssen Sie diese Dokumente vorlegen können.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte Glücksspiel?
- Rechtlich unklar in DE. Einige Auslegungen sehen sie als 'Wetten' (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag relevant), andere als 'Termingeschäft' (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). Bisher gibt es keine Präzedenz-Urteile spezifisch für on-chain Prediction-Markets.
- Gibt es eine Höchstgrenze für Auszahlungen?
- Keine plattform-seitige Höchstgrenze. Sie können beliebig große Beträge auszahlen, vorausgesetzt KYC ist abgeschlossen. SEPA-Bank-Auszahlungen über €15.000 werden zusätzlich für Anti-Money-Laundering geprüft (gesetzliche Pflicht für alle Plattformen).
- Was passiert wenn die Regulierung sich ändert?
- Bei einer Regulierungsänderung in Ihrer Jurisdiktion (z.B. Verbot von Prediction-Märkten) würde Polymarket Deutschland Legal nicht-mehr-zugängliche Geo-Räume blockieren und Auszahlungen weiterhin abwickeln. Ihre Gelder bleiben jederzeit auszahlbar.
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