Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland Legal) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| Spread -0.5 | 79% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 75% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 36.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 40.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 36% |
| O/U 46.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 32% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Safety? | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 21% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 66.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Chargers vs. Chiefs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 22% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-18T20:25:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $104K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht zu Prognose: Chargers vs. Chiefs betrachtet die vier vergleichbaren Plattformen aus regulatorischer Perspektive: welche ist in Deutschland zugänglich, wo greift KYC ab welcher Schwelle, wie wird die Plattform vom Wohnsitz-Land klassifiziert. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen den regulatorischen Status, KYC-Schwellen und Settlement-Optionen jeder Plattform für deutsche Trader.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Auf Polymarket erfolgt die Auflösung on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. Auszahlung in USDC ist sofort und automatisch, ohne KYC. Aus deutscher Steuersicht zählen Gewinne aus Prediction-Märkten typischerweise als sonstige Einkünfte (§ 22 EStG) bei einer Haltedauer unter einem Jahr — Spekulationsfrist anwendbar; konsultieren Sie eine Steuerberatung für Ihren Einzelfall.
Kalshi settelt in USD und meldet automatisch an die IRS — für deutsche Nutzer derzeit ohnehin nicht zugänglich. Betfair settelt nach UK-Recht und ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Manifold ist Spielgeld und löst keine Steuerpflicht aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Ist Polymarket in Deutschland legal?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert — eine eigentliche Nutzung über die Polymarket-Seite ist nicht möglich. Die rechtliche Lage in DE selbst ist Graubereich: keine explizite Erlaubnis, keine explizite Verbote für Prediction-Markets. Polymarket Deutschland Legal hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint.
- Brauche ich KYC für Polymarket Deutschland Legal?
- Nicht für lebenslanges Trading-Volumen unter $1.500. Über dieser Schwelle wird ein schneller KYC-Prozess ausgelöst — Ausweis, Selfie, ungefähr 5-10 Minuten. Die Schwelle entspricht FATF-Reisestandards für nicht-regulierte Krypto-Plattformen.
- Wie werden Gewinne in DE versteuert?
- Aus deutscher Steuersicht typischerweise als sonstige Einkünfte (§ 22 Nr. 3 EStG) bei Haltedauer unter einem Jahr. Über ein Jahr greift möglicherweise die Spekulationsfrist. Wir können keine Steuerberatung leisten — konsultieren Sie eine Steuerberatung für Ihren Einzelfall.
- Kann ich anonym handeln?
- Pseudonym, ja — bis zur KYC-Schwelle. Polymarket Deutschland Legal speichert nicht Ihren Klarnamen, sondern eine Email-Adresse und Wallet-Adressen. Über $1.500 lebenslanges Volumen wird KYC verlangt, dann ist die Identität nicht mehr anonym.
- Was passiert bei einer Steuerprüfung?
- Sie sind selbst verantwortlich für die Dokumentation Ihrer Trades. Polymarket Deutschland Legal exportiert eine vollständige Transaktions-Historie (CSV/PDF) für Steuer-Berichte. Bei deutscher Steuerprüfung müssen Sie diese Dokumente vorlegen können.
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