Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland Legal) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| Rams O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 32.5 | 95% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 94% |
| Rams O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| Rams O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Rams O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 36.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| Rams 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 38.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| Rams O/U 19.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 86% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| Rams O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 42.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Rams 2H O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| O/U 44.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| O/U 46.5 | 74% |
| Rams O/U 23.5 | 74% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 74% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 70% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 68% |
| O/U 48.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Rams 1H O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 65% |
| Rams 1H O/U 12.5 | 65% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Rams O/U 26.5 | 63% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| O/U 50.5 | 62% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Rams O/U 27.5 | 59% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| Rams 2H O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Rams 1H O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 55% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| Rams 2H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Rams 2H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 52% |
| O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rams Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Rams 2H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Rams O/U 30.5 | 46% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 2H Moneyline | 44% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 44% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 44% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Rams 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Rams 2H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Bills vs. Rams | 39% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 58.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 60.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Bills vs. Rams: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Rams 1H O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| O/U 62.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Rams 2H O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Rams 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Rams 2H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| O/U 64.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Rams 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 66.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Rams O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| O/U 68.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| O/U 70.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 1-6 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| O/U 72.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| O/U 74.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 7-13 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 14-20 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 21+ | 6% |
| Safety? | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Bills vs. Rams. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-13T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.6M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein Plattform-Status-Snapshot, nicht eine Trading-Empfehlung. Wir listen die regulatorischen Anforderungen jeder Plattform — Polymarket (CFTC-Konflikt seit 2022), Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert, US-only), Betfair (UK-lizensiert, geo-Block in DE), Manifold (Spielgeld, keine Regulierung) — und zeigen die Live-Quote nur dort, wo wir saubere Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung trennt sich nach regulatorischem Modell. Polymarkets on-chain Pfad ist KYC-frei für lebenslanges Volumen unter $1.500 (Polymarket Deutschland Legal-Schwelle); die Auszahlung erfolgt in USDC innerhalb Minuten. Kalshi und Betfair setzen volle KYC-Verifikation voraus — bei beiden Plattformen sind deutsche Nutzer in der Praxis durch Geo-Block ausgeschlossen.
Häufige Fragen
- Ist Polymarket in Deutschland legal?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert — eine eigentliche Nutzung über die Polymarket-Seite ist nicht möglich. Die rechtliche Lage in DE selbst ist Graubereich: keine explizite Erlaubnis, keine explizite Verbote für Prediction-Markets. Polymarket Deutschland Legal hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint.
- Wie werden Gewinne in DE versteuert?
- Aus deutscher Steuersicht typischerweise als sonstige Einkünfte (§ 22 Nr. 3 EStG) bei Haltedauer unter einem Jahr. Über ein Jahr greift möglicherweise die Spekulationsfrist. Wir können keine Steuerberatung leisten — konsultieren Sie eine Steuerberatung für Ihren Einzelfall.
- Was passiert bei einer Steuerprüfung?
- Sie sind selbst verantwortlich für die Dokumentation Ihrer Trades. Polymarket Deutschland Legal exportiert eine vollständige Transaktions-Historie (CSV/PDF) für Steuer-Berichte. Bei deutscher Steuerprüfung müssen Sie diese Dokumente vorlegen können.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte Glücksspiel?
- Rechtlich unklar in DE. Einige Auslegungen sehen sie als 'Wetten' (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag relevant), andere als 'Termingeschäft' (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). Bisher gibt es keine Präzedenz-Urteile spezifisch für on-chain Prediction-Markets.
- Gibt es eine Höchstgrenze für Auszahlungen?
- Keine plattform-seitige Höchstgrenze. Sie können beliebig große Beträge auszahlen, vorausgesetzt KYC ist abgeschlossen. SEPA-Bank-Auszahlungen über €15.000 werden zusätzlich für Anti-Money-Laundering geprüft (gesetzliche Pflicht für alle Plattformen).
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